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NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 4 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest choices of the week in addition to possible upsets.

NFL Week 4 Survivor Strategy and Picks

In conventional survivor pools, members are required to select a winner of 1 NFL game straight-up each and every week. In eliminator tournaments, the foundations are tougher – allowing contributors to use a workforce only one time all the way through the course of the regular season. In 2023, which means that participants will need to select 18 of the 32 groups to complete the regular season. Consequently, there might be weeks when you'll not be able to choose an elite roster with a favorable matchup.

Each week on this RotoGrinders article, we will identify one trustworthy favorite and select one favorite this is on upset alert. During the first 9 weeks of last season, four of our teams that have been on disillusioned alert lost outright, despite all of the ones groups being favored by means of at least one rating on the time of writing.

Below, we now have our list of crimson flags to take a look at to keep away from when selecting your eliminator group of the week. As a common rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when opting for your workforce:

1. Intra-division video games
2. Primetime video games
3. Away groups with deficient defenses
4. Non-elite teams taking part in on a brief week
5. Non-elite groups with a relaxation disadvantage
6. Teams who're enjoying an opponent off in their bye week

Trust this staff in Week 4: Los Angeles Chargers

Week 1 Trust this team: Baltimore Ravens (Result: Won 25-Nine towards the Houston Texans)
Week 2 Trust this crew: Dallas Cowboys (Result: Won 30-10 against the New York Jets)
Week 3 Trust this team: San Francisco 49ers (Result: Won 30-12 against the New York Giants)

Brandon Staley is much less trustworthy as a head trainer than Antonio Brown was once when he said he had an actual COVID-19 vaccination card in 2021. However, even Staley is going to have a troublesome time finding a option to let down Los Angeles Chargers’ fans this weekend against the Las Vegas Raiders – a group this is hastily spiraling in opposition to the ground of the NFL standings.

This weekend, the Raiders are unlikely to have their starting quarterback , who's currently in concussion protocol and nonetheless has no longer talked to the media this week. According to Vic Tafur of The Athletic, is anticipated to begin if Garoppolo is not able to fit up. In addition to having a backup quarterback on Sunday, the Raiders are also dealing with offensive line issues. Per NextGen Stats, Josh Jacobs is averaging -0.1 yards according to convey earlier than touch, which means that he is getting hit, on moderate, sooner than he even will get to the line of scrimmage. Factor in a defense that ranks 29th in EPA/play thru 3 weeks, and it becomes extremely tricky to look a pathway to victory for Las Vegas on this spot, absent a Staley masterclass (in a foul manner).

The Chargers have their flaws as nicely – particularly a protection that ranks 28th in EPA/play q4 and a head coach that apparently can’t lend a hand however get in the way on a weekly foundation. However, this is, through a long way, the most efficient matchup of the yr to use Los Angeles in survivor leagues. The only different favorable home matchup that the Chargers have at house is a Sunday Night Football sport in opposition to the Chicago Bears, and any individual who has done this sooner than knows that it's best to avoid primetime contests if possible. There are risks here, however Los Angeles is smart on this spot, given the context of their schedule and the requirements wanted to pick, doubtlessly, 18 other groups in 18 weeks to live to tell the tale a complete regular season.

Week 4 Survivor Fade: Dallas Cowboys

Week 1 Fade: Kansas City Chiefs (Result: Lost 21-20 towards the Detroit Lions)
Week 2 Fade: Buffalo Bills (Result: Won 38-10 towards the Las Vegas Raiders)
Week 3 Fade: Philadelphia Eagles (Result: Won 25-11 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Last week, the Philadelphia Eagles ended up getting again quite a few key defensive avid gamers by the time kickoff rolled around, which helped them earn a comfy victory on the street. This week, we have some other NFC East team which may be less of a lock that the marketplace is currently implying, pending the health in their offensive line on Sunday.

In Week 3, Dallas used to be without beginning right guard Zack Martin, beginning heart Tyler Biadasz, and left take on Tyron Smith. The result was once a season-worst six quarterback hurries allowed, and seven pressures allowed general. performed poorly overall, but was especially bad under force, completing best 3-of-Eight go makes an attempt for 39 passing yards.

Perhaps extra alarming, the vaunted Dallas defense regarded anything but intimidating on Sunday. After generating a 55.7% pressure charge in Week 1 and a 46.8% drive rate in Week 2, the Cowboys had an abysmal 18.0% defensive drive charge in Week 3. Moreover, according to Michael Gehlken, Dallas did not permit a unmarried dashing attempt of 20-plus yards throughout the first two games of the season, however they allowed 4 in a 12-carry span during the primary part of their Week 3 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals.

The New England Patriots are not the most talented staff within the NFL, however they have got a robust defense and are well-coached on each side of the ball, which makes them a deadly underdog in this spot if Dallas is once once more lacking key pieces at the offensive line. Monitor the status of the Cowboys’ offensive linemen right through the week sooner than making a last choice on this sport.

Image Credit: Getty Images

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